Week 1 NFL – 9/9/18

week 1 2018 cash lineupWeek 1 of the NFL season always brings a lot questions and surprises. You have a lot of time think, overthink, and confuse yourself before the games start. Boy did week 1 deliver on some big fantasy outputs. The plan here is for me to post about my process each week and how I ended up on my cash lineup as well as a quick review on my success/fail rate. This process is as much for me to reflect on what I did as it is for you to get an insight into one players process. I play on DraftKings under the username Bigjw520.

I spend each week listening to podcasts, reviewing stats, following Twitter accounts to get latest news, and reviewing games to try and find what I think will be positive opportunities. As I looked at the week I had come to fall in love with a few receivers. I knew for sure that I wanted to play Sanders due to his increased slot role and new QB Keenum who had a big year in 2017 throwing the Thielen. The other guy that I was locked in on was Allen. He has a huge role for the Chargers and the matchup against the Chiefs looked juicy.

I also really liked Thomas and Kamara on a Saints team that seemed to have an walk of a matchup against what was supposed to be a weak Bucs defense. Then there was Gronkowski. I knew there was going to be no week this year where his price was cheaper and the targets are going to be really concentrated in New England this year.

Knowing I had so many options but that I wasn’t going to be able to play all the high priced guys I had some decisions to make. Originally I had settled on a lineup with Dalton, Collins, White, Goodwin, Sanders, Thomas, Gronkowski, Allen, WAS D. After mulling that over I decided for cash I needed a better floor at RB so I had to come down to Doyle at TE in order to get Kamara in the lineup. This turned out to be the right decision.

The biggest mistake I made this week was to fade the usage and cheap price of Conner in PIT in favor of Cole in an offense that just doesn’t throw enough. Going forward I need to look at prioritizing value at the RB position when there is guaranteed volume.

Results: Won 71% of cash entries. Only mistake was entering a large field double up that was not single entry. Ended up missing the cash by 1 pt with very solid lineup because it was filled with a lot of sharks who had entered trains (i.e. max entries of the same lineup). Need to watch the game selection but if I continue at this win rate it will be a very successful season and allow me to keep taking shots in the large field GPP’s. Overall netted a 92% profit on the week.

I did have a nice tournament lineup in the Milly Maker with a SD/KC game stack.week 1 2018 tournament lineup

 

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