Week 4 NFL 2018 – Missed Opportunities

DK cash wk4 9.30.18

It can be easy to get frustrated playing a game that for all intents and purposes only has 17 opportunities in a year and having to wait a full week to redeem yourself when you’ve missed the mark. After week 3 I was chomping at the bit and glad to be able to get back to my normal routine in regards to research and lineup building.

  • Opportunity and matchups locked me onto Gio Bernard against the Falcons D that funnels to pass catching backs and Sterling Shephard who got the dream matchup against a Saints D that has been throwing up points to #2 WR’s this year.
  • I was also fairly locked into Mel Gordon going against a SF team that isn’t good against the run and in a bit of turmoil with the loss of their QB.
  • I liked Sony Michel with Rex Burkhead going to IR which gives him a clear path to the lead back role in New England.
  • With Allen Robinson facing a bad Tampa secondary and his 25.6% target share I felt he had a safe floor.
  • There were not any TE’s that I loved this week so I decided to punt at that position which turned out to be a mistake.

The crux of this week for me turned out to be the QB/WR decision where I was stuck between Andy Dalton & Michael Thomas or Deshaun Watson and Julio Jones. My initial look of the week really liked the games for CIN/ATL and NO/NYG better than the HOU/IND game. Some recency bias of getting burned by Julio last week is what ultimately got me off that direction. I don’t feel terrible about my lineup as whole. Thomas just had a clunker. This week had a lot of high scoring, almost like week 1 so 170.08 didn’t stack up well enough.

I’m thinking that I need to weigh my $ spend on the premium priced players towards the RB’s in cash as I should have been on Kamara. The week resulted in only a 22% win rate in cash which makes 3 bad weeks in a row. Had I gone the other way at QB/WR it would have been a positive return. What this tells me is that I am on the right path and will be piecing things together the right way more often than not. As of Sunday evening I was feeling a bit tilted but this is why we manage our bankroll and don’t get too high or low as we could just as easily run of 3 winning weeks in a row when we know our research is good, or hit a jackpot in a GPP with a lineup that goes nuts.

Speaking of GPP’s, if you listened to the podcast last week you heard me tout Mitchell Trubisky as a candidate for a breakout game based on some of the deeper research I did looking at passing zones both from the player side and the defensive side. Now, I couldn’t have known he would go off the way he did, but we are playing for outcomes in a range and he lined up to be a good tournament play. I did play a couple of Trubisky lineups this week but unfortunately 1 piece of 9 doesn’t solve the puzzle and I missed some of the other homeruns this week. Next time I uncover a play like this that I know will be super low owned I will make more lineups to give myself a chance at putting it all together. Looking forward to week 5 as the tighter pricing and data gets the more our research will give us an edge.

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