Opportunity Needed

Week 11 Opportunity Needed

by Josh West

 

Happy week 11 everyone!   Sorry this is so late, but hopefully you’ll still be able to use it.  I’ve switched things up a bit this week and I’ll explain how after we go over results from week 10.

recap1

 

Two players had more touches than their TNF3xValue and the result was split.  Lamar Jackson had a great ROI while having less touches.  That’s always nice to see, but imagine where it would have been if he got to 34 touches.  Across the week things are a little clearer.

recap2

11% of qualifying players had an ROI of 3+ with less touches while 22% got their touches and had an ROI of 3+.

 

Now onto this week.  This week we’ll be looking at ONF or Opportunity Needed.  The only difference between ONF and TNF is it used targets instead of receptions.  The purpose of this because we use attempts for passing and rushing, but were only counting the actual receptions.  That didn’t seem right to me.  The other change I’ll be doing this week is that I’m going to give you the top 3 players at each position who 3x salary is greater than the below chart, but doesn’t exclude players whose ONF3X is higher than their Opt/G.

ptschart

Let’s see the top 3 at each position this week.

onf chart

**Adam Thielen and Austin Hooper were the top choices at their respective positions, but since they aren’t playing I left them out.

I’ll be curious to see how changing from TNF to ONF affects the numbers.  As always I hope you find value in this.  If you have any feedback or suggestions please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit us up on social media.

 

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Touches Needed

Week 10 Touches Needed for Value

ABC Featured Content   by Josh West 11-9-19

What a rollercoaster week 9 was for this guy.  I started out pretty decent only to watch all profits disappear by the 2nd half of the early games.  I was losing everywhere until the last 5 minutes of the late games.  Luckily the TB @ SEA game went in to OT and allowed me to break even.  If you’re like me, breaking even counts as a win.  My process is starting to help out a little bit so we’ll just keep working at it.  With that said, let’s see how the numbers played out last week.

recap1

 

Of the 6 players that were on the model and played, 4 had more touches than their TNF 3x.  3 of those 4 had an ROI 0f 3 or higher.  It’s a small sample, but it hit pretty decent.  Across all of the games in week 9 the results look like this:

recap2.PNG

Now onto this week.  As always the criteria is simple.  A player’s touchespergame (TPG) must be higher than their touches needed for 3x (TNF 3x) and their 3x Salary has to be higher than the below chart.

ptschart

Here are all the players that qualify.

wk10chart

 

Once again, no wideouts qualified for the list which I think speaks more on pricing than anything else.  I’m working on a something that might provide a little help at that position, but want to make sure it’s right before I post.

If you’re reading this it likely means you haven’t totally lost faith in the system yet so thank you!  This is an evolving process and I’m trying to make tweaks weekly to see where I can squeeze out more value for you.  I appreciate you taking the time and going on this ride with me.  As always, best of luck to you and please feel free to provide any feedback.

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

 

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Week 8 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West        

Well last week didn’t go well for me, but I’m not giving up on the process.  There were a few misses, but all in all things seem to be looking good.  Here’s how last week’s plays ended up.

wk7recap

Six players hit or exceeded their Touches Needed For 3x, but only four of them had an ROI of 3x or higher.  Austin Ekeler just missed his TNF 3x, but still managed to have a ROI of 4.75.  There were actually 22 players who surpassed the 5x ROI mark which is the most this season.  The overall rate of ROI looks like this.

wk7recap2

This is an evolving tool so let’s see if we can get better this week.  As per usual here’s what we’re looking for.  The player must have more touches per game (TPG) than their touches needed for 3x value (TNF 3x Value) and their 3x ROI needs to be higher than the below table.

ptschart

Here are the top players who qualify this week.

wk8tnf

I tested a run where instead of simply needing a 3x ROI higher than the limit set in the table I qualified the player by saying their AvtPts/G(Average Points Per Game) had to be higher than 3x their Salary. For what it’s worth, it would mean Matthew Stafford replaces Josh Allen on the top 5 list of QBs.  I’ll be curious to see if that affects the final results.

I’m curious if you would rather see me qualify players by AvgPts/G > 3x Salary or continue using the limits I’ve been using.  Please let me know by leaving a comment or hitting me up on Twitter. I’ll try to get a poll up this weekend.  As always I thank you for your time and wish you the best of luck.

 

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Week 7 – Touches Needed for Value

ABC Featured Content

By JD West        Oct. 17, 2019

Another week in the books and a little more data to play with.  As always before we look at the touches needed for week 7, let’s see how the model did in week 6.

wk6 recap1

As you can see there was only one player who hit the TNF 3x and didn’t return a ROI of 3+. I was pretty happy with that result, but for all players the count is a little more even.

wk6 recap2

I will continue to gather more data and play with the process throughout the season to see how things look at the end.  In the meantime, let’s look at the main slate this week. Keep in mind the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.

poschart

I had to decrease the points for RB and WR by 1 to get someone to pop so keep that in mind this week. It’s not ideal, but I’ll take what I can get.

wk7 tnf

I like the results for QB, but that’s easy. The RB situation is most intriguing to me. If the Chargers get behind then Ekeler could get those 13+ touches. The Packers are still giving up the 4th most DraftKings points to the RB position, but Jacobs only has 8 targets on the season so that’s a risk. Please hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions, comments, or if there’s a player not shown that you’re interested in seeing. Always looking to add value for those of you sticking with us. Best of luck to everyone this weekend.

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Light Prep = Big Sweat

A little late this week but I wanted to get a quick recap of my week 6 play none the less. Vacation kept me from a review of week 5 (I know, poor me) but I played a lighter than normal schedule as I was out of town yet still managed to screw myself by making a late swap to Geronimo Alison from Courtland Sutton which cost me a positive return.

DK cash week 6 10.13.19

Week 6 proved to be a tough one for me to crack. I played my normal allocation of cash with just a few GPP lineups. I did not have my normal week of research and review and had some troubles settling in on a cash lineup. I’ve known for 3 weeks that I would likely be playing Hooper against ARI and Matt Ryan’s price was right from a cash game QB standpoint. The other guy that I locked in early in my process was Chris Carson. Those 3 plays turned out exactly how I would have wanted so no complaints there.

When it became apparent that Todd Gurley wasn’t going to play I just thought Brown would be hard to fade in cash. I didn’t spend enough time researching his usual role, nor did I weight the matchup enough. The other big miss-step was DJ Chark. He’s been very good this year but I should’ve weighted his match against Marcus Lattimore a little more.

I felt fine playing Jets D at a super low price as it allowed me to fit other high price guys in. Thielen was very attractive going against a hapless Eagles secondary. He just didn’t get as much love as we would have liked since Diggs went crazy. I also feel good about the Hopkins play with his price and situation even though the result wasn’t there. This was the first week I’ve had a lineup nearly tanked by the bad luck of an injury. I loved Cooper and was really bummed too see him go out in the 1st quarter of his game.

So, I wasn’t comfortable with this at lock and was forced to sweat it down to the last seconds of the last game but did manage to finish in the black. The lineup scored at about the 40% which was just good enough to cash in all 3 double ups and won 20 of 30 H2H’s. Ready to grind it out for week 7 and hope to find some GPP success as well!

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Week 6 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West       Oct. 11, 2019

Week 5 was something else in the DFS world. Hopefully you all had great weeks. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the players we talked about in last week’s column. We were looking for players whose TPG (touches per game) was greater than the number of touches they would need to reach 3x value (TNF 3x).

wk6 chart 1

Of the 12 players, 7 had more touches than their TNF 3x. 5 of those 7 had an ROI of 3x +. Those are pretty good odds. For context purposes, please remember that this doesn’t take into account the defense or anything else.  Below you’ll see how the whole slate looked.

wk6 chart 2

As you can see there was a decent number of players who outperformed last week which accounts for so many high scoring lineups. Now let’s move on to week 6. As a reminder here’s the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.  These totals should be a decent cash game lineup.

wk6 chart 3

Here’s the breakdown by position for the main slate.

wk6 chart 4

Some of the players on the list have difficult matchups this week so it will be interesting to see how they fair. It should be a good test of this little experiment. As mentioned in this week’s podcast I love Kupp and Hooper this week. Of course the expectations for Mahomes and Watson are pretty big this week too. I’m looking forward to a great day of football on Sunday. As always feel free to reach out if you have any questions.  The end goal is to make sure someone is getting value out of this. Best of luck everyone.

 

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Week 5 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West       Oct. 4, 2019

I’m back at it again for week 5, but before we look at this week I want to review week 4. We were looking for players whose TPG (touches per game) was greater than the number of touches they would need to reach 3x value (TNF 3x). Below you’ll see how those players did minus TY Hilton since he didn’t suit up.

wk 5 chart 1

Ten players had more touches than what the math said they would need for a 3x return on investment.  It split right down the middle. Five of those players had a greater than 3 ROI while five players had less than 3.  Here’s what it looked like across the board.

wk 5 chart 2

Now let’s move on to week 5. As a reminder here’s the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.  These totals should be a decent cash game lineup.

wk 5 chart 3

Here’s the breakdown by position for the main slate.

wk 5 chart 4

I think there are some values here that could come up big this week. As always feel free to reach out if you have any questions.  The end goal is to make sure someone is getting value out of this. Best of luck everyone.

 

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