Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Thanksgiving Day Special ONF

by JD West

Happy Thanksgiving Eve everyone.  I decided I’d throw a quick special edition of my Opportunities Needed for just the Thanksgiving Day slate of games.  Instead of just giving you the top 3 at each position, I’m going to give you 73 players at the four different skill positions.  I’ve removed some players that I already knew were ruled out, but may have missed some so be sure to double check their status prior to kickoff.

Name Pos Salary Game AvgPts/G Opt/G ONF 3x
Matt Ryan QB 6400 NO@ATL 21.39 41 39.18
Dak Prescott QB 5700 BUF@DAL 23.73 39 28.98
Josh Allen QB 6200 BUF@DAL 20.74 38 33.82
Drew Brees QB 6800 NO@ATL 18.88 35 40.8
Mitchell Trubisky QB 5300 CHI@DET 12.29 34 44.17
Ezekiel Elliott RB 7400 BUF@DAL 19.17 23 28.1
Alvin Kamara RB 8100 NO@ATL 18.58 20 25.58
Devonta Freeman RB 5100 NO@ATL 13.26 16 18.43
David Montgomery RB 5400 CHI@DET 11 16 24.18
Bo Scarbrough RB 4700 CHI@DET 10.15 16 19.86
Devin Singletary RB 5800 BUF@DAL 12.41 13 18.51
Frank Gore RB 3900 BUF@DAL 7.74 13 20.53
Latavius Murray RB 5600 NO@ATL 11.97 12 17.14
Tarik Cohen RB 5000 CHI@DET 10.01 10 14.71
Brian Hill RB 4400 NO@ATL 5.43 9 20.31
Ty Johnson RB 3500 CHI@DET 3.62 6 17.21
Tony Pollard RB 4900 BUF@DAL 5.79 6 16.15
J.D. McKissic RB 3700 CHI@DET 6.21 5 9.57
Qadree Ollison RB 4100 NO@ATL 5.6 4 10.25
T.J. Yeldon RB 3000 BUF@DAL 4.7 4 7.14
Kenjon Barner RB 3200 NO@ATL 1.46 1 6.58
Zach Line RB 3000 NO@ATL 1.12 1 12
Patrick DiMarco RB 3000 BUF@DAL 0.89 0 8.26
Dwayne Washington RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.49 0 6.67
Keith Smith RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.04 0 52.94
Michael Thomas WR 9100 NO@ATL 25.84 11 12.82
Julio Jones WR 7300 NO@ATL 17.7 9 12.03
Michael Gallup WR 5500 BUF@DAL 16.26 8 8.82
John Brown WR 6300 BUF@DAL 16.36 8 9.59
Allen Robinson WR 6700 CHI@DET 15.4 8 11.62
Calvin Ridley WR 6600 NO@ATL 15.21 7 9.66
Marvin Jones WR 5300 CHI@DET 16.37 7 7.19
Amari Cooper WR 6000 BUF@DAL 18.06 7 7.69
Kenny Golladay WR 6100 CHI@DET 16.47 7 8.51
Danny Amendola WR 4100 CHI@DET 10.13 6 7.64
Randall Cobb WR 5000 BUF@DAL 12.12 6 8.11
Cole Beasley WR 4700 BUF@DAL 11.59 6 8.01
Taylor Gabriel WR 4300 CHI@DET 10.03 5 7.05
Ted Ginn WR 3800 NO@ATL 6.87 4 7.26
Anthony Miller WR 3900 CHI@DET 5.71 4 9.07
Isaiah McKenzie WR 3100 BUF@DAL 4.26 3 6.12
Russell Gage WR 4500 NO@ATL 4.29 3 9.93
Christian Blake WR 3000 NO@ATL 2.1 3 12.86
Devin Smith WR 3000 BUF@DAL 5.58 2 3.2
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 3000 CHI@DET 2.34 2 8.04
Duke Williams WR 3300 BUF@DAL 5.93 2 3.9
Javon Wims WR 3000 CHI@DET 1.92 1 5.96
Cedrick Wilson WR 3000 BUF@DAL 1.92 1 6.57
Robert Foster WR 3200 BUF@DAL 1.08 1 8.97
Justin Hardy WR 3100 NO@ATL 2.07 1 6.5
Tavon Austin WR 3000 BUF@DAL 3.04 1 5.26
Tre’Quan Smith WR 3500 NO@ATL 4.85 1 3.6
Marvin Hall WR 3000 CHI@DET 4.42 1 2.52
Deonte Harris WR 3000 NO@ATL 1.11 0 3.6
Andre Roberts WR 3000 BUF@DAL 0.44 0 13.43
Jared Cook TE 4800 NO@ATL 10.04 5 7.24
Jason Witten TE 3300 BUF@DAL 8.24 5 5.93
T.J. Hockenson TE 3400 CHI@DET 6.9 4 6.46
Dawson Knox TE 2900 BUF@DAL 5.81 3 4.94
Josh Hill TE 2600 NO@ATL 3.82 2 4.15
Blake Jarwin TE 3000 BUF@DAL 5.74 2 3.53
Dan Arnold TE 2500 NO@ATL 2.25 2 6.64
Jesper Horsted TE 2500 CHI@DET 1.4 1 5.36
Logan Thomas TE 2900 CHI@DET 2.64 1 3.8
Jesse James TE 2600 CHI@DET 1.46 1 7.72
Tommy Sweeney TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.36 1 8.82
Tyler Kroft TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.53 1 5.73
Jaeden Graham TE 3100 NO@ATL 1.44 0 2.97
Lee Smith TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.19 0 2.86
Dalton Schultz TE 2500 BUF@DAL 0.14 0 4.69
Luke Stocker TE 2700 NO@ATL 0.86 0 8.62
J.P. Holtz TE 2500 CHI@DET 0.43 0 5.24

I’ll do my best to get the main slate plays up Friday, but hopefully this will help the few of you that take the time look every week.


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Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Week 12 Opportunities Needed For Value

by JD West 11/22/19

I switched things up last week and went with Opportunities Needed instead of Touches Needed so I was curious how things would shake out.  Turns out, there’s not that much difference.  I honestly didn’t expect much of a difference since it really only replace receptions with targets.  All that said, let’s see how the players faired.


Overall the numbers were quite even across the weekend.  Those players that had more opportunities than what was predicted they would need for 3x value pretty much split right down the middle.  The numbers for Touches needed were almost identical.


Moving onto this week let’s see what players jump out at you.  These are the top 3 at each position who have a 3x Salary higher than a predetermined level.  QB/WR/FLEX = 18, RB = 17, TE = 12.  If at a minimum you get those point levels, your floor would be 146 points.

wk12 onf

Given just these players I actually like using Carr, Henry, Ridley, and Griffin as building blocks.  Which players would you put in your lineup?


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Week 8 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West        

Well last week didn’t go well for me, but I’m not giving up on the process.  There were a few misses, but all in all things seem to be looking good.  Here’s how last week’s plays ended up.


Six players hit or exceeded their Touches Needed For 3x, but only four of them had an ROI of 3x or higher.  Austin Ekeler just missed his TNF 3x, but still managed to have a ROI of 4.75.  There were actually 22 players who surpassed the 5x ROI mark which is the most this season.  The overall rate of ROI looks like this.


This is an evolving tool so let’s see if we can get better this week.  As per usual here’s what we’re looking for.  The player must have more touches per game (TPG) than their touches needed for 3x value (TNF 3x Value) and their 3x ROI needs to be higher than the below table.


Here are the top players who qualify this week.


I tested a run where instead of simply needing a 3x ROI higher than the limit set in the table I qualified the player by saying their AvtPts/G(Average Points Per Game) had to be higher than 3x their Salary. For what it’s worth, it would mean Matthew Stafford replaces Josh Allen on the top 5 list of QBs.  I’ll be curious to see if that affects the final results.

I’m curious if you would rather see me qualify players by AvgPts/G > 3x Salary or continue using the limits I’ve been using.  Please let me know by leaving a comment or hitting me up on Twitter. I’ll try to get a poll up this weekend.  As always I thank you for your time and wish you the best of luck.


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Week 7 – Touches Needed for Value

ABC Featured Content

By JD West        Oct. 17, 2019

Another week in the books and a little more data to play with.  As always before we look at the touches needed for week 7, let’s see how the model did in week 6.

wk6 recap1

As you can see there was only one player who hit the TNF 3x and didn’t return a ROI of 3+. I was pretty happy with that result, but for all players the count is a little more even.

wk6 recap2

I will continue to gather more data and play with the process throughout the season to see how things look at the end.  In the meantime, let’s look at the main slate this week. Keep in mind the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.


I had to decrease the points for RB and WR by 1 to get someone to pop so keep that in mind this week. It’s not ideal, but I’ll take what I can get.

wk7 tnf

I like the results for QB, but that’s easy. The RB situation is most intriguing to me. If the Chargers get behind then Ekeler could get those 13+ touches. The Packers are still giving up the 4th most DraftKings points to the RB position, but Jacobs only has 8 targets on the season so that’s a risk. Please hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions, comments, or if there’s a player not shown that you’re interested in seeing. Always looking to add value for those of you sticking with us. Best of luck to everyone this weekend.

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Light Prep = Big Sweat

A little late this week but I wanted to get a quick recap of my week 6 play none the less. Vacation kept me from a review of week 5 (I know, poor me) but I played a lighter than normal schedule as I was out of town yet still managed to screw myself by making a late swap to Geronimo Alison from Courtland Sutton which cost me a positive return.

DK cash week 6 10.13.19

Week 6 proved to be a tough one for me to crack. I played my normal allocation of cash with just a few GPP lineups. I did not have my normal week of research and review and had some troubles settling in on a cash lineup. I’ve known for 3 weeks that I would likely be playing Hooper against ARI and Matt Ryan’s price was right from a cash game QB standpoint. The other guy that I locked in early in my process was Chris Carson. Those 3 plays turned out exactly how I would have wanted so no complaints there.

When it became apparent that Todd Gurley wasn’t going to play I just thought Brown would be hard to fade in cash. I didn’t spend enough time researching his usual role, nor did I weight the matchup enough. The other big miss-step was DJ Chark. He’s been very good this year but I should’ve weighted his match against Marcus Lattimore a little more.

I felt fine playing Jets D at a super low price as it allowed me to fit other high price guys in. Thielen was very attractive going against a hapless Eagles secondary. He just didn’t get as much love as we would have liked since Diggs went crazy. I also feel good about the Hopkins play with his price and situation even though the result wasn’t there. This was the first week I’ve had a lineup nearly tanked by the bad luck of an injury. I loved Cooper and was really bummed too see him go out in the 1st quarter of his game.

So, I wasn’t comfortable with this at lock and was forced to sweat it down to the last seconds of the last game but did manage to finish in the black. The lineup scored at about the 40% which was just good enough to cash in all 3 double ups and won 20 of 30 H2H’s. Ready to grind it out for week 7 and hope to find some GPP success as well!