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Week 8 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West        

Well last week didn’t go well for me, but I’m not giving up on the process.  There were a few misses, but all in all things seem to be looking good.  Here’s how last week’s plays ended up.

wk7recap

Six players hit or exceeded their Touches Needed For 3x, but only four of them had an ROI of 3x or higher.  Austin Ekeler just missed his TNF 3x, but still managed to have a ROI of 4.75.  There were actually 22 players who surpassed the 5x ROI mark which is the most this season.  The overall rate of ROI looks like this.

wk7recap2

This is an evolving tool so let’s see if we can get better this week.  As per usual here’s what we’re looking for.  The player must have more touches per game (TPG) than their touches needed for 3x value (TNF 3x Value) and their 3x ROI needs to be higher than the below table.

ptschart

Here are the top players who qualify this week.

wk8tnf

I tested a run where instead of simply needing a 3x ROI higher than the limit set in the table I qualified the player by saying their AvtPts/G(Average Points Per Game) had to be higher than 3x their Salary. For what it’s worth, it would mean Matthew Stafford replaces Josh Allen on the top 5 list of QBs.  I’ll be curious to see if that affects the final results.

I’m curious if you would rather see me qualify players by AvgPts/G > 3x Salary or continue using the limits I’ve been using.  Please let me know by leaving a comment or hitting me up on Twitter. I’ll try to get a poll up this weekend.  As always I thank you for your time and wish you the best of luck.

 

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Light Prep = Big Sweat

A little late this week but I wanted to get a quick recap of my week 6 play none the less. Vacation kept me from a review of week 5 (I know, poor me) but I played a lighter than normal schedule as I was out of town yet still managed to screw myself by making a late swap to Geronimo Alison from Courtland Sutton which cost me a positive return.

DK cash week 6 10.13.19

Week 6 proved to be a tough one for me to crack. I played my normal allocation of cash with just a few GPP lineups. I did not have my normal week of research and review and had some troubles settling in on a cash lineup. I’ve known for 3 weeks that I would likely be playing Hooper against ARI and Matt Ryan’s price was right from a cash game QB standpoint. The other guy that I locked in early in my process was Chris Carson. Those 3 plays turned out exactly how I would have wanted so no complaints there.

When it became apparent that Todd Gurley wasn’t going to play I just thought Brown would be hard to fade in cash. I didn’t spend enough time researching his usual role, nor did I weight the matchup enough. The other big miss-step was DJ Chark. He’s been very good this year but I should’ve weighted his match against Marcus Lattimore a little more.

I felt fine playing Jets D at a super low price as it allowed me to fit other high price guys in. Thielen was very attractive going against a hapless Eagles secondary. He just didn’t get as much love as we would have liked since Diggs went crazy. I also feel good about the Hopkins play with his price and situation even though the result wasn’t there. This was the first week I’ve had a lineup nearly tanked by the bad luck of an injury. I loved Cooper and was really bummed too see him go out in the 1st quarter of his game.

So, I wasn’t comfortable with this at lock and was forced to sweat it down to the last seconds of the last game but did manage to finish in the black. The lineup scored at about the 40% which was just good enough to cash in all 3 double ups and won 20 of 30 H2H’s. Ready to grind it out for week 7 and hope to find some GPP success as well!

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Week 6 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West       Oct. 11, 2019

Week 5 was something else in the DFS world. Hopefully you all had great weeks. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the players we talked about in last week’s column. We were looking for players whose TPG (touches per game) was greater than the number of touches they would need to reach 3x value (TNF 3x).

wk6 chart 1

Of the 12 players, 7 had more touches than their TNF 3x. 5 of those 7 had an ROI of 3x +. Those are pretty good odds. For context purposes, please remember that this doesn’t take into account the defense or anything else.  Below you’ll see how the whole slate looked.

wk6 chart 2

As you can see there was a decent number of players who outperformed last week which accounts for so many high scoring lineups. Now let’s move on to week 6. As a reminder here’s the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.  These totals should be a decent cash game lineup.

wk6 chart 3

Here’s the breakdown by position for the main slate.

wk6 chart 4

Some of the players on the list have difficult matchups this week so it will be interesting to see how they fair. It should be a good test of this little experiment. As mentioned in this week’s podcast I love Kupp and Hooper this week. Of course the expectations for Mahomes and Watson are pretty big this week too. I’m looking forward to a great day of football on Sunday. As always feel free to reach out if you have any questions.  The end goal is to make sure someone is getting value out of this. Best of luck everyone.

 

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Week 5 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West       Oct. 4, 2019

I’m back at it again for week 5, but before we look at this week I want to review week 4. We were looking for players whose TPG (touches per game) was greater than the number of touches they would need to reach 3x value (TNF 3x). Below you’ll see how those players did minus TY Hilton since he didn’t suit up.

wk 5 chart 1

Ten players had more touches than what the math said they would need for a 3x return on investment.  It split right down the middle. Five of those players had a greater than 3 ROI while five players had less than 3.  Here’s what it looked like across the board.

wk 5 chart 2

Now let’s move on to week 5. As a reminder here’s the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.  These totals should be a decent cash game lineup.

wk 5 chart 3

Here’s the breakdown by position for the main slate.

wk 5 chart 4

I think there are some values here that could come up big this week. As always feel free to reach out if you have any questions.  The end goal is to make sure someone is getting value out of this. Best of luck everyone.

 

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Righting the Ship

Every week that we play DFS is a unique study. We hope that we have the best information and learn from our previous experiences in order to build the best lineups. After 2 rough weeks I was able to put things together and get things going in the right direction again. Not that my 2 previous weeks were bad plays, I just didn’t consider enough variables. This week I am going to approach the breakdown a little bit different.

Results were about as good as they get from a cash lineup standpoint. My lineup cashed in the top 5-7% of the 3 double ups that I entered and won 17 of 20 H2H’s. It was actually a good enough lineup that I was surprised it didn’t win the 2 small leagues that I used it in but that will happen from time to time.

DK cash week 4 9.29.19

QB

I was torn here. I had considered Case Keenum (whew, avoided that landmine) and Russel Wilson. I liked Wilson’s game opportunity against AZ quite a bit. In the end I thought that paying up for Mahomes would be the ideal way for me to get exposure to his 54.5 point game total rather than trying to guess which WR was going to hit this week.

RB

To me this was the easiest position to settle in on this week. CMC is always in play for me. With Kyle Allen as QB they are really leaning on this guy and he never comes off the field. Ekeler had the dream matchup against MIA with Jackson out and Gordon only available in an emergency role this was impossible to pass up. Gallman’s price an roll against a bad Redskins team allowed me to pay at the other positions. The only other RB that I seriously considered this week for cash was Kerryon Johnson. He was a good play and top of many models but I just liked the other plays and how they fit a little bit better.

WR

With the big investments at QB and RB I wasn’t going to be able to pay a ton at WR. I toyed with a lineup that had Cooper Kupp but I really wanted to play Keenan Allen against the ‘Phins and his role has just been phenomenal this year. I figured it would be even more reliable with a shorter RB bench. It didn’t work out but I still think this was the right play. I was already considering Trey Quinn at the minimum salary as I felt that NY-WAS game could shoot out and he has a decent role for the price. When McLaurin was ruled out it sealed it for me. I’ve been liking Curtis Samuel and thought he could be due for a breakout. He was actually the last piece that I fit in. I also considered both Lockett and Kirk but I chose to get exposure to them in GPP’s.

TE

As I talked about on the podcast last week, Will Dissly had the dream matchup for a TE this year. ARI had given up all of the goodness to TE’s and his opportunity had expanded as SEA traded away Nick Vannett. The $3600 price tag was just too juicy not to squeeze.

DST

I almost always pick this position last after I prioritize my must plays at the skill positions. I wasn’t going to have the $$$ to pay up at this spot so the CAR play fit well.

GPP’s

I did have some success at GPP’s this week and had one lineup contending for the top 10 in DFS Edge Listener League until the TB-LAR game went nuts in the second half. That lineup was simply a variation on my cash lineup which tells you why it did so well. Overall this was a profitable week and I hope to continue building off of it moving forward.

GPP 9.29.19.JPG