Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Thanksgiving Day Special ONF

by JD West

Happy Thanksgiving Eve everyone.  I decided I’d throw a quick special edition of my Opportunities Needed for just the Thanksgiving Day slate of games.  Instead of just giving you the top 3 at each position, I’m going to give you 73 players at the four different skill positions.  I’ve removed some players that I already knew were ruled out, but may have missed some so be sure to double check their status prior to kickoff.

Name Pos Salary Game AvgPts/G Opt/G ONF 3x
Matt Ryan QB 6400 NO@ATL 21.39 41 39.18
Dak Prescott QB 5700 BUF@DAL 23.73 39 28.98
Josh Allen QB 6200 BUF@DAL 20.74 38 33.82
Drew Brees QB 6800 NO@ATL 18.88 35 40.8
Mitchell Trubisky QB 5300 CHI@DET 12.29 34 44.17
Ezekiel Elliott RB 7400 BUF@DAL 19.17 23 28.1
Alvin Kamara RB 8100 NO@ATL 18.58 20 25.58
Devonta Freeman RB 5100 NO@ATL 13.26 16 18.43
David Montgomery RB 5400 CHI@DET 11 16 24.18
Bo Scarbrough RB 4700 CHI@DET 10.15 16 19.86
Devin Singletary RB 5800 BUF@DAL 12.41 13 18.51
Frank Gore RB 3900 BUF@DAL 7.74 13 20.53
Latavius Murray RB 5600 NO@ATL 11.97 12 17.14
Tarik Cohen RB 5000 CHI@DET 10.01 10 14.71
Brian Hill RB 4400 NO@ATL 5.43 9 20.31
Ty Johnson RB 3500 CHI@DET 3.62 6 17.21
Tony Pollard RB 4900 BUF@DAL 5.79 6 16.15
J.D. McKissic RB 3700 CHI@DET 6.21 5 9.57
Qadree Ollison RB 4100 NO@ATL 5.6 4 10.25
T.J. Yeldon RB 3000 BUF@DAL 4.7 4 7.14
Kenjon Barner RB 3200 NO@ATL 1.46 1 6.58
Zach Line RB 3000 NO@ATL 1.12 1 12
Patrick DiMarco RB 3000 BUF@DAL 0.89 0 8.26
Dwayne Washington RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.49 0 6.67
Keith Smith RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.04 0 52.94
Michael Thomas WR 9100 NO@ATL 25.84 11 12.82
Julio Jones WR 7300 NO@ATL 17.7 9 12.03
Michael Gallup WR 5500 BUF@DAL 16.26 8 8.82
John Brown WR 6300 BUF@DAL 16.36 8 9.59
Allen Robinson WR 6700 CHI@DET 15.4 8 11.62
Calvin Ridley WR 6600 NO@ATL 15.21 7 9.66
Marvin Jones WR 5300 CHI@DET 16.37 7 7.19
Amari Cooper WR 6000 BUF@DAL 18.06 7 7.69
Kenny Golladay WR 6100 CHI@DET 16.47 7 8.51
Danny Amendola WR 4100 CHI@DET 10.13 6 7.64
Randall Cobb WR 5000 BUF@DAL 12.12 6 8.11
Cole Beasley WR 4700 BUF@DAL 11.59 6 8.01
Taylor Gabriel WR 4300 CHI@DET 10.03 5 7.05
Ted Ginn WR 3800 NO@ATL 6.87 4 7.26
Anthony Miller WR 3900 CHI@DET 5.71 4 9.07
Isaiah McKenzie WR 3100 BUF@DAL 4.26 3 6.12
Russell Gage WR 4500 NO@ATL 4.29 3 9.93
Christian Blake WR 3000 NO@ATL 2.1 3 12.86
Devin Smith WR 3000 BUF@DAL 5.58 2 3.2
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 3000 CHI@DET 2.34 2 8.04
Duke Williams WR 3300 BUF@DAL 5.93 2 3.9
Javon Wims WR 3000 CHI@DET 1.92 1 5.96
Cedrick Wilson WR 3000 BUF@DAL 1.92 1 6.57
Robert Foster WR 3200 BUF@DAL 1.08 1 8.97
Justin Hardy WR 3100 NO@ATL 2.07 1 6.5
Tavon Austin WR 3000 BUF@DAL 3.04 1 5.26
Tre’Quan Smith WR 3500 NO@ATL 4.85 1 3.6
Marvin Hall WR 3000 CHI@DET 4.42 1 2.52
Deonte Harris WR 3000 NO@ATL 1.11 0 3.6
Andre Roberts WR 3000 BUF@DAL 0.44 0 13.43
Jared Cook TE 4800 NO@ATL 10.04 5 7.24
Jason Witten TE 3300 BUF@DAL 8.24 5 5.93
T.J. Hockenson TE 3400 CHI@DET 6.9 4 6.46
Dawson Knox TE 2900 BUF@DAL 5.81 3 4.94
Josh Hill TE 2600 NO@ATL 3.82 2 4.15
Blake Jarwin TE 3000 BUF@DAL 5.74 2 3.53
Dan Arnold TE 2500 NO@ATL 2.25 2 6.64
Jesper Horsted TE 2500 CHI@DET 1.4 1 5.36
Logan Thomas TE 2900 CHI@DET 2.64 1 3.8
Jesse James TE 2600 CHI@DET 1.46 1 7.72
Tommy Sweeney TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.36 1 8.82
Tyler Kroft TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.53 1 5.73
Jaeden Graham TE 3100 NO@ATL 1.44 0 2.97
Lee Smith TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.19 0 2.86
Dalton Schultz TE 2500 BUF@DAL 0.14 0 4.69
Luke Stocker TE 2700 NO@ATL 0.86 0 8.62
J.P. Holtz TE 2500 CHI@DET 0.43 0 5.24

I’ll do my best to get the main slate plays up Friday, but hopefully this will help the few of you that take the time look every week.


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Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Week 12 Opportunities Needed For Value

by JD West 11/22/19

I switched things up last week and went with Opportunities Needed instead of Touches Needed so I was curious how things would shake out.  Turns out, there’s not that much difference.  I honestly didn’t expect much of a difference since it really only replace receptions with targets.  All that said, let’s see how the players faired.


Overall the numbers were quite even across the weekend.  Those players that had more opportunities than what was predicted they would need for 3x value pretty much split right down the middle.  The numbers for Touches needed were almost identical.


Moving onto this week let’s see what players jump out at you.  These are the top 3 at each position who have a 3x Salary higher than a predetermined level.  QB/WR/FLEX = 18, RB = 17, TE = 12.  If at a minimum you get those point levels, your floor would be 146 points.

wk12 onf

Given just these players I actually like using Carr, Henry, Ridley, and Griffin as building blocks.  Which players would you put in your lineup?


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Opportunity Needed

Week 11 Opportunity Needed

by Josh West


Happy week 11 everyone!   Sorry this is so late, but hopefully you’ll still be able to use it.  I’ve switched things up a bit this week and I’ll explain how after we go over results from week 10.



Two players had more touches than their TNF3xValue and the result was split.  Lamar Jackson had a great ROI while having less touches.  That’s always nice to see, but imagine where it would have been if he got to 34 touches.  Across the week things are a little clearer.


11% of qualifying players had an ROI of 3+ with less touches while 22% got their touches and had an ROI of 3+.


Now onto this week.  This week we’ll be looking at ONF or Opportunity Needed.  The only difference between ONF and TNF is it used targets instead of receptions.  The purpose of this because we use attempts for passing and rushing, but were only counting the actual receptions.  That didn’t seem right to me.  The other change I’ll be doing this week is that I’m going to give you the top 3 players at each position who 3x salary is greater than the below chart, but doesn’t exclude players whose ONF3X is higher than their Opt/G.


Let’s see the top 3 at each position this week.

onf chart

**Adam Thielen and Austin Hooper were the top choices at their respective positions, but since they aren’t playing I left them out.

I’ll be curious to see how changing from TNF to ONF affects the numbers.  As always I hope you find value in this.  If you have any feedback or suggestions please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit us up on social media.


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Touches Needed

Week 10 Touches Needed for Value

ABC Featured Content   by Josh West 11-9-19

What a rollercoaster week 9 was for this guy.  I started out pretty decent only to watch all profits disappear by the 2nd half of the early games.  I was losing everywhere until the last 5 minutes of the late games.  Luckily the TB @ SEA game went in to OT and allowed me to break even.  If you’re like me, breaking even counts as a win.  My process is starting to help out a little bit so we’ll just keep working at it.  With that said, let’s see how the numbers played out last week.



Of the 6 players that were on the model and played, 4 had more touches than their TNF 3x.  3 of those 4 had an ROI 0f 3 or higher.  It’s a small sample, but it hit pretty decent.  Across all of the games in week 9 the results look like this:


Now onto this week.  As always the criteria is simple.  A player’s touchespergame (TPG) must be higher than their touches needed for 3x (TNF 3x) and their 3x Salary has to be higher than the below chart.


Here are all the players that qualify.



Once again, no wideouts qualified for the list which I think speaks more on pricing than anything else.  I’m working on a something that might provide a little help at that position, but want to make sure it’s right before I post.

If you’re reading this it likely means you haven’t totally lost faith in the system yet so thank you!  This is an evolving process and I’m trying to make tweaks weekly to see where I can squeeze out more value for you.  I appreciate you taking the time and going on this ride with me.  As always, best of luck to you and please feel free to provide any feedback.


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Week 8 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West        

Well last week didn’t go well for me, but I’m not giving up on the process.  There were a few misses, but all in all things seem to be looking good.  Here’s how last week’s plays ended up.


Six players hit or exceeded their Touches Needed For 3x, but only four of them had an ROI of 3x or higher.  Austin Ekeler just missed his TNF 3x, but still managed to have a ROI of 4.75.  There were actually 22 players who surpassed the 5x ROI mark which is the most this season.  The overall rate of ROI looks like this.


This is an evolving tool so let’s see if we can get better this week.  As per usual here’s what we’re looking for.  The player must have more touches per game (TPG) than their touches needed for 3x value (TNF 3x Value) and their 3x ROI needs to be higher than the below table.


Here are the top players who qualify this week.


I tested a run where instead of simply needing a 3x ROI higher than the limit set in the table I qualified the player by saying their AvtPts/G(Average Points Per Game) had to be higher than 3x their Salary. For what it’s worth, it would mean Matthew Stafford replaces Josh Allen on the top 5 list of QBs.  I’ll be curious to see if that affects the final results.

I’m curious if you would rather see me qualify players by AvgPts/G > 3x Salary or continue using the limits I’ve been using.  Please let me know by leaving a comment or hitting me up on Twitter. I’ll try to get a poll up this weekend.  As always I thank you for your time and wish you the best of luck.


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