Opportunity Needed

Week 13 Opportunities Needed For Value

by JD West 11/29/19

Happy Thanksgiving weekend everyone. Hope you all gorged on turkey, stuffing, pie, and dfs victories. Before we look at this weeks plays let’s see how week 12 shook out.

Wk 12 ONF Results

Only two of the plays had more opportunities than what was predicted they would need to hit an ROI of 3x or higher. Of those two, they split the result. Also had two players get to the 3x ROI without fully hitting their ONF 3x. Overall there were 42 players whose Wk 12 Opt > ONF 3x.

Over ONF Counts

The numbers still support the obvious. If a player hits their ONF, they have a better chance of returning a 3x ROI. This isn’t rocket science. More opportunities should equal more points. The goal is to find those players that provide opportunity at a lower cost to reach value. With that said we’ll move onto week 13 and see what we can work out. In order for players to qualify they need to have a 3x value of: QB = 18, RB = 17, WR = 18, TE = 12. These are hopefully floor values.

QB with 3x ROI >= 18
RB with 3x ROI >= 17
WR with 3x ROI >= 18
***Hilton has been ruled out of week 13.***
TE with 3x ROI >= 12

Keep in mind that these don’t account for the matchup in any way. As a bonus here are a few cheaper plays that I think have a good chance of paying off in GPP.

Low cost GPP Options

As always I thank you for your time and welcome any feedback or questions. This is a passion project that I hope provides some value, even if it’s just entertainment value. Best of luck to you all.

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Thanksgiving Day Special ONF

by JD West

Happy Thanksgiving Eve everyone.  I decided I’d throw a quick special edition of my Opportunities Needed for just the Thanksgiving Day slate of games.  Instead of just giving you the top 3 at each position, I’m going to give you 73 players at the four different skill positions.  I’ve removed some players that I already knew were ruled out, but may have missed some so be sure to double check their status prior to kickoff.

Name Pos Salary Game AvgPts/G Opt/G ONF 3x
Matt Ryan QB 6400 NO@ATL 21.39 41 39.18
Dak Prescott QB 5700 BUF@DAL 23.73 39 28.98
Josh Allen QB 6200 BUF@DAL 20.74 38 33.82
Drew Brees QB 6800 NO@ATL 18.88 35 40.8
Mitchell Trubisky QB 5300 CHI@DET 12.29 34 44.17
Ezekiel Elliott RB 7400 BUF@DAL 19.17 23 28.1
Alvin Kamara RB 8100 NO@ATL 18.58 20 25.58
Devonta Freeman RB 5100 NO@ATL 13.26 16 18.43
David Montgomery RB 5400 CHI@DET 11 16 24.18
Bo Scarbrough RB 4700 CHI@DET 10.15 16 19.86
Devin Singletary RB 5800 BUF@DAL 12.41 13 18.51
Frank Gore RB 3900 BUF@DAL 7.74 13 20.53
Latavius Murray RB 5600 NO@ATL 11.97 12 17.14
Tarik Cohen RB 5000 CHI@DET 10.01 10 14.71
Brian Hill RB 4400 NO@ATL 5.43 9 20.31
Ty Johnson RB 3500 CHI@DET 3.62 6 17.21
Tony Pollard RB 4900 BUF@DAL 5.79 6 16.15
J.D. McKissic RB 3700 CHI@DET 6.21 5 9.57
Qadree Ollison RB 4100 NO@ATL 5.6 4 10.25
T.J. Yeldon RB 3000 BUF@DAL 4.7 4 7.14
Kenjon Barner RB 3200 NO@ATL 1.46 1 6.58
Zach Line RB 3000 NO@ATL 1.12 1 12
Patrick DiMarco RB 3000 BUF@DAL 0.89 0 8.26
Dwayne Washington RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.49 0 6.67
Keith Smith RB 3000 NO@ATL 0.04 0 52.94
Michael Thomas WR 9100 NO@ATL 25.84 11 12.82
Julio Jones WR 7300 NO@ATL 17.7 9 12.03
Michael Gallup WR 5500 BUF@DAL 16.26 8 8.82
John Brown WR 6300 BUF@DAL 16.36 8 9.59
Allen Robinson WR 6700 CHI@DET 15.4 8 11.62
Calvin Ridley WR 6600 NO@ATL 15.21 7 9.66
Marvin Jones WR 5300 CHI@DET 16.37 7 7.19
Amari Cooper WR 6000 BUF@DAL 18.06 7 7.69
Kenny Golladay WR 6100 CHI@DET 16.47 7 8.51
Danny Amendola WR 4100 CHI@DET 10.13 6 7.64
Randall Cobb WR 5000 BUF@DAL 12.12 6 8.11
Cole Beasley WR 4700 BUF@DAL 11.59 6 8.01
Taylor Gabriel WR 4300 CHI@DET 10.03 5 7.05
Ted Ginn WR 3800 NO@ATL 6.87 4 7.26
Anthony Miller WR 3900 CHI@DET 5.71 4 9.07
Isaiah McKenzie WR 3100 BUF@DAL 4.26 3 6.12
Russell Gage WR 4500 NO@ATL 4.29 3 9.93
Christian Blake WR 3000 NO@ATL 2.1 3 12.86
Devin Smith WR 3000 BUF@DAL 5.58 2 3.2
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 3000 CHI@DET 2.34 2 8.04
Duke Williams WR 3300 BUF@DAL 5.93 2 3.9
Javon Wims WR 3000 CHI@DET 1.92 1 5.96
Cedrick Wilson WR 3000 BUF@DAL 1.92 1 6.57
Robert Foster WR 3200 BUF@DAL 1.08 1 8.97
Justin Hardy WR 3100 NO@ATL 2.07 1 6.5
Tavon Austin WR 3000 BUF@DAL 3.04 1 5.26
Tre’Quan Smith WR 3500 NO@ATL 4.85 1 3.6
Marvin Hall WR 3000 CHI@DET 4.42 1 2.52
Deonte Harris WR 3000 NO@ATL 1.11 0 3.6
Andre Roberts WR 3000 BUF@DAL 0.44 0 13.43
Jared Cook TE 4800 NO@ATL 10.04 5 7.24
Jason Witten TE 3300 BUF@DAL 8.24 5 5.93
T.J. Hockenson TE 3400 CHI@DET 6.9 4 6.46
Dawson Knox TE 2900 BUF@DAL 5.81 3 4.94
Josh Hill TE 2600 NO@ATL 3.82 2 4.15
Blake Jarwin TE 3000 BUF@DAL 5.74 2 3.53
Dan Arnold TE 2500 NO@ATL 2.25 2 6.64
Jesper Horsted TE 2500 CHI@DET 1.4 1 5.36
Logan Thomas TE 2900 CHI@DET 2.64 1 3.8
Jesse James TE 2600 CHI@DET 1.46 1 7.72
Tommy Sweeney TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.36 1 8.82
Tyler Kroft TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.53 1 5.73
Jaeden Graham TE 3100 NO@ATL 1.44 0 2.97
Lee Smith TE 2500 BUF@DAL 1.19 0 2.86
Dalton Schultz TE 2500 BUF@DAL 0.14 0 4.69
Luke Stocker TE 2700 NO@ATL 0.86 0 8.62
J.P. Holtz TE 2500 CHI@DET 0.43 0 5.24

I’ll do my best to get the main slate plays up Friday, but hopefully this will help the few of you that take the time look every week.

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

Opportunity Needed, Uncategorized

Week 12 Opportunities Needed For Value

by JD West 11/22/19

I switched things up last week and went with Opportunities Needed instead of Touches Needed so I was curious how things would shake out.  Turns out, there’s not that much difference.  I honestly didn’t expect much of a difference since it really only replace receptions with targets.  All that said, let’s see how the players faired.

recap1

Overall the numbers were quite even across the weekend.  Those players that had more opportunities than what was predicted they would need for 3x value pretty much split right down the middle.  The numbers for Touches needed were almost identical.

recap2

Moving onto this week let’s see what players jump out at you.  These are the top 3 at each position who have a 3x Salary higher than a predetermined level.  QB/WR/FLEX = 18, RB = 17, TE = 12.  If at a minimum you get those point levels, your floor would be 146 points.

wk12 onf

Given just these players I actually like using Carr, Henry, Ridley, and Griffin as building blocks.  Which players would you put in your lineup?

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

 

 

 

Opportunity Needed

Week 11 Opportunity Needed

by Josh West

 

Happy week 11 everyone!   Sorry this is so late, but hopefully you’ll still be able to use it.  I’ve switched things up a bit this week and I’ll explain how after we go over results from week 10.

recap1

 

Two players had more touches than their TNF3xValue and the result was split.  Lamar Jackson had a great ROI while having less touches.  That’s always nice to see, but imagine where it would have been if he got to 34 touches.  Across the week things are a little clearer.

recap2

11% of qualifying players had an ROI of 3+ with less touches while 22% got their touches and had an ROI of 3+.

 

Now onto this week.  This week we’ll be looking at ONF or Opportunity Needed.  The only difference between ONF and TNF is it used targets instead of receptions.  The purpose of this because we use attempts for passing and rushing, but were only counting the actual receptions.  That didn’t seem right to me.  The other change I’ll be doing this week is that I’m going to give you the top 3 players at each position who 3x salary is greater than the below chart, but doesn’t exclude players whose ONF3X is higher than their Opt/G.

ptschart

Let’s see the top 3 at each position this week.

onf chart

**Adam Thielen and Austin Hooper were the top choices at their respective positions, but since they aren’t playing I left them out.

I’ll be curious to see how changing from TNF to ONF affects the numbers.  As always I hope you find value in this.  If you have any feedback or suggestions please don’t hesitate to leave a comment or hit us up on social media.

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

 

 

Touches Needed

Week 10 Touches Needed for Value

ABC Featured Content   by Josh West 11-9-19

What a rollercoaster week 9 was for this guy.  I started out pretty decent only to watch all profits disappear by the 2nd half of the early games.  I was losing everywhere until the last 5 minutes of the late games.  Luckily the TB @ SEA game went in to OT and allowed me to break even.  If you’re like me, breaking even counts as a win.  My process is starting to help out a little bit so we’ll just keep working at it.  With that said, let’s see how the numbers played out last week.

recap1

 

Of the 6 players that were on the model and played, 4 had more touches than their TNF 3x.  3 of those 4 had an ROI 0f 3 or higher.  It’s a small sample, but it hit pretty decent.  Across all of the games in week 9 the results look like this:

recap2.PNG

Now onto this week.  As always the criteria is simple.  A player’s touchespergame (TPG) must be higher than their touches needed for 3x (TNF 3x) and their 3x Salary has to be higher than the below chart.

ptschart

Here are all the players that qualify.

wk10chart

 

Once again, no wideouts qualified for the list which I think speaks more on pricing than anything else.  I’m working on a something that might provide a little help at that position, but want to make sure it’s right before I post.

If you’re reading this it likely means you haven’t totally lost faith in the system yet so thank you!  This is an evolving process and I’m trying to make tweaks weekly to see where I can squeeze out more value for you.  I appreciate you taking the time and going on this ride with me.  As always, best of luck to you and please feel free to provide any feedback.

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. Please take a moment to share this on your social media as we continue to try to grow.  Thank you for your support!

 

Uncategorized

Light Prep = Big Sweat

A little late this week but I wanted to get a quick recap of my week 6 play none the less. Vacation kept me from a review of week 5 (I know, poor me) but I played a lighter than normal schedule as I was out of town yet still managed to screw myself by making a late swap to Geronimo Alison from Courtland Sutton which cost me a positive return.

DK cash week 6 10.13.19

Week 6 proved to be a tough one for me to crack. I played my normal allocation of cash with just a few GPP lineups. I did not have my normal week of research and review and had some troubles settling in on a cash lineup. I’ve known for 3 weeks that I would likely be playing Hooper against ARI and Matt Ryan’s price was right from a cash game QB standpoint. The other guy that I locked in early in my process was Chris Carson. Those 3 plays turned out exactly how I would have wanted so no complaints there.

When it became apparent that Todd Gurley wasn’t going to play I just thought Brown would be hard to fade in cash. I didn’t spend enough time researching his usual role, nor did I weight the matchup enough. The other big miss-step was DJ Chark. He’s been very good this year but I should’ve weighted his match against Marcus Lattimore a little more.

I felt fine playing Jets D at a super low price as it allowed me to fit other high price guys in. Thielen was very attractive going against a hapless Eagles secondary. He just didn’t get as much love as we would have liked since Diggs went crazy. I also feel good about the Hopkins play with his price and situation even though the result wasn’t there. This was the first week I’ve had a lineup nearly tanked by the bad luck of an injury. I loved Cooper and was really bummed too see him go out in the 1st quarter of his game.

So, I wasn’t comfortable with this at lock and was forced to sweat it down to the last seconds of the last game but did manage to finish in the black. The lineup scored at about the 40% which was just good enough to cash in all 3 double ups and won 20 of 30 H2H’s. Ready to grind it out for week 7 and hope to find some GPP success as well!

Uncategorized

Week 6 – Touches Needed for Value

By JD West       Oct. 11, 2019

Week 5 was something else in the DFS world. Hopefully you all had great weeks. Let’s go ahead and take a look at the players we talked about in last week’s column. We were looking for players whose TPG (touches per game) was greater than the number of touches they would need to reach 3x value (TNF 3x).

wk6 chart 1

Of the 12 players, 7 had more touches than their TNF 3x. 5 of those 7 had an ROI of 3x +. Those are pretty good odds. For context purposes, please remember that this doesn’t take into account the defense or anything else.  Below you’ll see how the whole slate looked.

wk6 chart 2

As you can see there was a decent number of players who outperformed last week which accounts for so many high scoring lineups. Now let’s move on to week 6. As a reminder here’s the criteria. A player must average more TPG than their TNF 3x Value and their 3x ROI must be greater than the value in this next table.  These totals should be a decent cash game lineup.

wk6 chart 3

Here’s the breakdown by position for the main slate.

wk6 chart 4

Some of the players on the list have difficult matchups this week so it will be interesting to see how they fair. It should be a good test of this little experiment. As mentioned in this week’s podcast I love Kupp and Hooper this week. Of course the expectations for Mahomes and Watson are pretty big this week too. I’m looking forward to a great day of football on Sunday. As always feel free to reach out if you have any questions.  The end goal is to make sure someone is getting value out of this. Best of luck everyone.

 

Listen to our weekly podcast and find us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. And please feel free to share this on your social media.