NFL Week 2 – 9/16/18

DK cash 9.16.18

Week 2 DrafKings Review – 2018 NFL Season

When you start off the year with the success rate we had in week 1 there is a danger of getting ahead of one’s self. Week 2 brings me back to reality and I’ll review what went well and what didn’t here with a breakdown of my cash lineup. When looking over pricing it was clear that we didn’t have the same advantages we did last week with missed priced players to give us many different options. The tighter pricing structure makes the decisions that much more important. All signs pointed to juicy matchups for both Antonio Brown ($8800) and Todd Gurley ($9200) so much so that I locked them in early. The problem with having a couple of high priced guys that you’re not willing to move off of is that it makes building a solid lineup around them a little more challenging. I really liked Melvin Gordon this week as well, but there was no way I could fit him in. Going forward when building cash lineups, it would probably be wise to lean towards a safer floor by picking a high-volume RB over the premium priced WR. The lineup construction forced me toward Keenum at QB who I thought was in a good spot against the Raiders but doesn’t have much upside. Tough to swallow when Mahommes went off. Tevin Coleman and James Conner were must plays given their opportunity to cost ratio. The other problem with this lineup is that I was forced to punt at TE. Texans D was the chalk this way in a matchup against a backup QB playing behind a makeshift O-line. It just didn’t work out.

 

For tournaments this week I had a lot of the pieces but didn’t have them put together right causing a near whiff for the week, only cashing in 2 GPP’s.

RESULTS: Cash lineup won only 16/46 for a 34.7% win rate. Total ROI for the week was a paltry -72% putting us under level for the year.

Process wasn’t wrong but need to test back and not lock in too early as the core players were decided upon by Friday evening. Overall, this week was Another Bad Call.

 

Week 1 NFL – 9/9/18

week 1 2018 cash lineupWeek 1 of the NFL season always brings a lot questions and surprises. You have a lot of time think, overthink, and confuse yourself before the games start. Boy did week 1 deliver on some big fantasy outputs. The plan here is for me to post about my process each week and how I ended up on my cash lineup as well as a quick review on my success/fail rate. This process is as much for me to reflect on what I did as it is for you to get an insight into one players process. I play on DraftKings under the username Bigjw520.

I spend each week listening to podcasts, reviewing stats, following Twitter accounts to get latest news, and reviewing games to try and find what I think will be positive opportunities. As I looked at the week I had come to fall in love with a few receivers. I knew for sure that I wanted to play Sanders due to his increased slot role and new QB Keenum who had a big year in 2017 throwing the Thielen. The other guy that I was locked in on was Allen. He has a huge role for the Chargers and the matchup against the Chiefs looked juicy.

I also really liked Thomas and Kamara on a Saints team that seemed to have an walk of a matchup against what was supposed to be a weak Bucs defense. Then there was Gronkowski. I knew there was going to be no week this year where his price was cheaper and the targets are going to be really concentrated in New England this year.

Knowing I had so many options but that I wasn’t going to be able to play all the high priced guys I had some decisions to make. Originally I had settled on a lineup with Dalton, Collins, White, Goodwin, Sanders, Thomas, Gronkowski, Allen, WAS D. After mulling that over I decided for cash I needed a better floor at RB so I had to come down to Doyle at TE in order to get Kamara in the lineup. This turned out to be the right decision.

The biggest mistake I made this week was to fade the usage and cheap price of Conner in PIT in favor of Cole in an offense that just doesn’t throw enough. Going forward I need to look at prioritizing value at the RB position when there is guaranteed volume.

Results: Won 71% of cash entries. Only mistake was entering a large field double up that was not single entry. Ended up missing the cash by 1 pt with very solid lineup because it was filled with a lot of sharks who had entered trains (i.e. max entries of the same lineup). Need to watch the game selection but if I continue at this win rate it will be a very successful season and allow me to keep taking shots in the large field GPP’s. Overall netted a 92% profit on the week.

I did have a nice tournament lineup in the Milly Maker with a SD/KC game stack.week 1 2018 tournament lineup