As noted, Ryan Poles said that if they decided to trade Justin Fields, they’ll “do right” by Fields. This lead most of us to believe Fields would be traded before 2024 Free Agency started.
Now that Free Agency has stated, some Bears pundits & fans have gone into full meltdown mode because after two days, Fields is still on the roster.
11am Chicago Time, Free Agency started. The Bears made a splash and signed RB D’Aandre Swift for 3-yrs / $24mm, but Justin Fields wasn’t traded, yet.
Most of us were watching Atlanta & Pittsburgh (and side-eying Las Vegas), as they were the three teams most-heavily rumored in the Justin Fields market.
Around 2pm Chicago Time, Kirk Cousins was headed to Atlanta on an eye-popping contract.
4-years, $180mm. Potential out after 3 years, but that’s a whole lot of coin. And now we’re paying slightly more attention to Minnesota. They’re a rival and they’d have to overpay, but still.
A couple hours later, Raiders signed Gardner Minshew.
2-years, $25mm.
Then evening came, and Russell Wilson signed with Pittsburgh.
Man, there goes most all those starting jobs.
All in all, 10 QBs signed in the first two days of Free agency.
Which brought out the naysayers.
- “Poles failed to trade Fields!”
- “Fields trade value is plummeting!”
Which posed the question…
Did Ryan Poles fail by NOT trading Justin Fields by the start of 2024 NFL Free Agency?
Is it Another Bad Call?
Nah. Meh. Most likely not.
Here we go…
1- Caleb Williams’ Pro Day is not until March 20th with a visit to follow.
Poles has repeatedly stated he plans to be thorough when it comes to the first pick of the draft.
While the big pundits all predicted the Bears will eventually draft Caleb Williams, and they assumed the reason the Bears had unconventionally moved up Williams’ visit to Chicago was to accommodate “doing right” by Fields if they do trade him, Poles has insisted on not putting the cart before the horse.
Even if Williams cancelled the original Chicago visit due to “logistics.”
Free Agency happened 6 weeks before the draft.
Poles isn’t going to be rushed.
2 – While Free Agency was humming, Poles, Eberflus, and a reportedly large contingency of Bears execs were in Eugene, Oregon, at the University of Oregon Pro Day.
Poles and co. were in “the valley” to see top-5 QB prospect Bo Nix and, more likely, All-American center Jackson Powers-Johnson.
The latter looks an ideal to fit the Hilgenberg/Kreutz-sized hole in the center of the Bears O-line.
All the while still making free agency deals.
These moments further show Poles will likely stick to his guns.
3 – Only one 2024 Free Agency starter QB deal really broke the bank
That’s the Cousins deal. $180,000,000.00 USD. 4 years? No, they’re not sitting Fields on the sideline till he’s nearly 30 before he’s back under center.
The rest of the deals are another story…
While Russell Wilson is scheduled to make about $39,000,000.00 USD next year, Pittsburgh is only paying about $1,210,000.00 USD of it. Denver is coughing up the other $37,790,000.00 USD to have Wilson play against them.
Minshew at ~$12,5000,000.00 USD a year is backup QB money.
The rest of them are even smaller deals.
4 – Justin Fields doesn’t make very much.
The average starting quarterback makes a little north of $30,000,000.00 USD.
As noted, Kirk Cousins is making about ~$45,000,000.00 USD a year with his brand new 4-year Atlanta deal.
- 2024: $25,000,000.00 USD
- 2025: $40,000,000.00 USD
- 2026: $57,500,000.00 USD
- 2027: $57,500,000.00 USD (potential out)
This coming season Justin Fields is expected to earn, between salary and signing bonus and roster bonus, about $6,004,713.00 USD.
Even the #1 pick in the 2024, whoever that is, will have a cap of $7,007,431 USD.
To give context, Bears K Cairo Santos is scheduled to make $4,260,000.00 USD in 2024.
Conclusion:
Here’s Justin Fields:
- His athletic talent is otherworldly
- His QB skill has been slow in developing
- The excuses for why he’s not yet Lamar Jackson are plentiful
Here is the rest of the NFL:
- Every team knows only one team can get Fields. The rest can’t sit and wait.
- Nobody knows if Fields is getting traded
- Everybody knows if the Bears do, it isn’t going to cost much to absorb for a year – even if it’s with a decent sized draft pick to acquire
Here’s the decision maker, Ryan Poles:
- Ryan Poles went through the NFL Executive training program. He cut his teeth in Kansas City, instrumental in drafting Patrick Holmes.
- His analytical, cards-close-to-the-vest approach landed the Bears a second #1 pick, in addition to the #9, and the favorable position were in.
- And what some of us would say making the same type of trade for Montez Sweat he made the year before for Claypool would require “stones that clink,” Poles would likely point to process he trusts. The deal reinvigorated the Monsters of the Midway D.
- Poles held his ground and got the Jaylon Johnson deal done, and wasn’t afraid to use the franchise tag to get it done
- He’s siding with Eberflus for at least one more year, even if that stretches his own neck farther out on Warren’s block.
If Poles wants to hang along the banks of the Wilamette River and enjoy where the Cascades and the Coastal Mountains part ways while parts of #BearDown are afraid Fields is fading into obscurity, all I can say is: “Try a Ninkasi. It’s an incredible local beer.”
He’s earned it.
Besides, the QB Market will change, and change again.
Poles knows the market today will be different that the market tomorrow. Openings for starting QB occur throughout the year. Starters get injured. Starters fall out of favor. Teams mismanage funds. And in the case of the NY Jets, their starter might be a Vice Presidential US candidate and need to hit the trail.
So when you’re ready, Poles, to let us know if Fields is:
- starting
- platooning
- backing up
- taking on the Taysom Hill role (H/T JD)
- or is being given a fresh start and we’re getting a return in picks / capital / tbd.
We’ll be ready.
Salutation:
With some many good ways to go, it’s hard to see Another Bad Call being made here.
But, then again, it’s the Bears.