Predicting a team’s record in June is hard. Too many variables and not enough controls. Injuries, trades, weather, even a team’s momentum can easily change wins to losses and vice versa. That said, it is still fun to throw darts and see what happens so let’s go.
Rather than arbitrarily picking a record, like I’ve done so many times before and will do again, I decided to look at some data to see if it supports my 9-8 prediction for the Bears in 2024. Thanks to the folks over at nflverse, I was able to pull in some data points and get to work. Depending on which lens we use, does it change the outlook?
What do past records tell us?
The first lens is a historical record lens. I looked at the last 5 seasons to see how the Bears fared against each of this season’s opponents. Here’s how that looks and the scale used for calculating win total.
| Winning Record | +1 |
| Losing Record | -1 |
| Tie Record | +0.5 |
This method gets the Bears to 9 wins. Looking good so far, but definitely not the whole story. 5 of the 6 wins against Detroit happened between 2019 and 2021. The last two seasons, against a much improved Detroit team, the result is a sadder 1-3 record. So let’s be optimistic and say Chicago and Detroit split the series. That puts the record down to 8 wins.
Now let’s look at the San Francisco record. The Bears and 49ers have played each of the last two seasons. The Niners won the first matchup in 2021, but the Bears took the matchup in 2022. But if you remember, and how can you forget the iconic scene of Justin Fields and teammates sliding into the endzone, that was a weird game due to weather conditions. This is a completely different Bears team than the one that played in that game, but until they prove otherwise, I think you have to give the nod to the 49ers here. That’s another loss which brings the win total down to 7.
At 7 wins, Chicago would match their record from last season. I don’t envision a scenario where anyone in that organization or its fan base would be satisfied with a 7 win season. So let’s try a different look at it.
Offensive and Defensive Trends
I wanted to look at it from a points scored and points allowed standpoint. This got sad really fast. Over the last 5 seasons, Chicago has averaged 19.87 PPG (points per game). Only Jacksonville, Washington, Denver, Carolina, and New York (Giants and Jets) have averaged less. Add in that there are only 4 teams (Baltimore, Buffalo, New England, San Francisco) that do not allow an average of 20+ points per game and the sadness deepens. To avoid a week of depression after seeing this stat, I wanted to look at it from a defensive point. The Bears are 14th in the league in points allowed per game over the last five seasons with 23.10 PPG. So how does that compare to the average PPG of this year’s opponents? Seven of Chicago’s 2024 opponents score more PPG than the 23.10 PPG allowed by the Bears. Only three teams score less than the 19.87 PPG put up by the Bears.
Using this information though, we can see that the combined average PPG are 22.67 scored and 23.32 allowed. Seven teams allow 24+ PPG. Six of those teams score less than 24 PPG. One of those teams is Detroit so we’ll count that as 2. If the new offensive staff and reworked offense can get to 24 PPG, Chicago wins…..7 games.
Now keep in mind these numbers are just averages. They do not account for home/away, indoor/outdoor, rookie QB/veteran QB, experienced HC/Noob HC, etc. There are so many factors that can swing these games. How do you account for all those factors and come up with a solid prediction? I am sure people much smarter than me have the time and skills to analyze all those factors so I will leave them to it.
For me, the gut has to take over at some point. I do not see Chicago beating Detroit twice this year, but I also do not see them losing to the Titans. I also think they have a good shot at beating the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks. If I make those changes to the 7 wins mentioned above, I get to 9 wins. It may not be the championship season everyone wants (or expects), but I believe 9 wins would be a good step in the right direction.